PROSPECTS OF INDIA BECOMING A GLOBAL POWER

PROSPECTS OF INDIA BECOMING A GLOBAL POWER

By : Amb. Amitava Tripathi

Venue : Guwahati University

                                                   It is a great honour for me to address you today at the first university of North-East India founded in 1948 through the tireless efforts of a group of eminent Assamese patriots. The University’s location of course, carries the name of one of Assam’s greatest sons, Bharat Ratna Gopinath Bordoloi, a valiant freedom fighter, a close associate of Mahatma Gandhi and the first Chief Minister of the state of Assam following Independence. Other great names associated with the University have been Madhab Bezbarua, Bhubaneshwar Barua, Sarat Chandra Goswami and Fakhruddin Ali Ahmed who went on to become one of India’s Presidents. For me, coming to this ancient city on the banks of the mighty Brahmaputra and home to the famous Kamakhya temple is a dream come true. I am grateful to the Public Diplomacy Division of the Ministry of External Affairs for providing me this opportunity. Just a few weeks ago, we celebrated the 61st anniversary of our Republic Day, which coincidentally also happens to be the Founding Day of this University. For an ancient country such as ours, sixty years may not seem very long, but for a forward-looking state, the period is long enough to make an assessment of its achievements and shortcomings. It is also apt that we take a careful stock of where we stand today in the community of nations and what kind of future we can plausibly expect as the twenty-first century unfolds. As every school-going child in India knows, with the world’s seventh largest landmass, second largest population, third largest army and the fourth largest economy in PPP terms, our country already stands as a leader among nations. But what strikes people across the globe most is that despite its incredible diversity of race, religion, language, etc. and the immense challenges posed by the poverty and illiteracy of a large segment of its population, India has been a remarkable example of a country seeking to resolve the multifarious and complex issues before it through an active and participatory democratic process. Fifteen general elections and innumerable state and local level elections later, our credentials as the world’s largest democracy are universally recognised. I have often heard my foreign interlocutors speaking in awe of India's general elections being the biggest organised human exercises in history.

Many of you are probably aware that in his address to both the Houses of our Parliament on 8 November 2010, the US President, Barack Obama, had paid India a great tribute, “It’s no coincidence that India is my first stop on my visit to Asia, or that this has been my longest visit to another country after becoming President. For in Asia and around the world, India is not simply emerging, India has emerged.” Of course, as an honoured guest of the Government of India, President Obama was being somewhat over-generous with his compliments, but there is no reason to doubt the sincerity of the admiration that India often excites in foreign observers. In fact, 2010 was a good year for India’s international standing. Besides Obama, the leaders of all the four other permanent members of the UN Security Council, David Cameron of UK, President Sarkozy of France, President Medvedev of Russia and Prime Minister Wen Jiabao of China visited India between June and December, and signed numerous agreements including contracts for billions of dollars of trade and investment. It would be churlish to dismiss the visits as a mere oddity in the scheduling of the diplomatic calendar, unlikely to be ever repeated. Each visit was carefully planned by the two sides and brought important mutual benefits besides promoting better understanding among the world's key-players. Equally significantly, India was elected last year one of the non-permanent members of the Security Council for a two-year period after a long hiatus and also secured the Chairpersonship of the Council’s Counter-Terrorism Committee, a body of enormous importance to both global and Indian security. On both the occasions, the Indian candidature received overwhelming support of the UN membership. Many fellow- Indians, who seem to be acutely aware of our not inconsiderable failings, are often surprised that quite a few knowledgeable and well-informed outsiders should judge us in a more favourable light than we ourselves do. Naturally, the encomiums paid to India by the world’s leaders should not blind us to our many shortcomings that stand in the way of our being a truly global power. The ongoing census will probably find India’s population at around 1200 million and even though the annual population growth rate of 1.4% has come down significantly since 1947, we are still adding the equivalent of one Australia every year without the corresponding resources. With 17% of the world’s population but only 2.2% of the world’s land mass, India has a seriously adverse land-man ratio, which leads to environmental degradation in the form of deforestation, soil erosion, decline in water tables and increasing inability of our farmers to eke out a decent livelihood. Even though over the years successive governments have promulgated elaborate socio-economic schemes, e.g.under the NREGA and the PDS, besides providing fertilizer subsidies and setting minimum prices for food procurement, to bring succor to the rural communities, weak delivery systems have prevented the benefits from reaching the targeted populations. Consequently, at least 27% of our population still lives below the poverty line and 46% of our children suffer from malnutrition. A large majority of our population lack basic sanitation facility and our infant mortality rate needs to improve substantially.

Our educational system has placed undue emphasis on declaring people literate without bothering whether the education provided equips them with adequate knowledge and skills for gainful employment. We live in a topsy-turvy world where a small minority of IIT and IIM graduates can command a premium in the job market while the overwhelming majority of our youth have to remain satisfied with low-paid jobs or none at all. It is commonly believed that in the next few decades, India would overtake China as the world’s most populous country and that the so-called demographic dividend would consolidate our position among the top global powers. It is important to note here that currently the median age of Indian population is 25 to China’s 34, and that over the next few decades India’s more youthful population has the potential to push India’s growth rate to surpass that of China. However, while growing at an average rate of 8% per annum, India is often heralded to become the third largest economy after China and the USA by 2025, eradicating poverty would still remain a daunting task unless we find viable solutions for our agricultural sector that still engages over 60% of our people and revamp our educational system. India’s 2010 HDI ranking by the UNDP places it at 119 among 169 nations, not an achievement to be proud of.